If you are checking out mock drafts, you have probably found a fair share with the Texans taking Central Florida quarterback Blake Bortles first overall, much to the chagrin of those who want to see Texas A&M superstar Johnny “Football” Manziel behind center or in the shotgun. Some Texans fans will no doubt be delighted to see that at least veteran Houston Chronicle journalist John McClain has Houston tabbing Manziel in his most recent mock draft. While many feel Blake is a fake and Manziel is the real deal, there’s also the possibility than neither player will be donning Texans gear in 2014 and beyond. 
For example, the Texans may be strongly tempted to tap into the tantalizing potential of South Carolina defensive end Jadeveon Clowney. You will find plenty of mocks that bring Clowney to the Bayou City.
Or they could trade down and get help elsewhere. A hypothetical trade with the Atlanta Falcons, who are not afraid to make bold moves on draft day, as witnessed by their blockbuster trade in 2011 with the Cleveland Browns that yielded wide receiver Julio Jones, moving Houston down into Atlanta’s slot at sixth overall could yield intriguing options such as Buffalo linebacker Khalil Mack or Texas A&M tackle Jake Matthews. As with any draft speculation, you have to heavily emphasize the word “could” as both players might be gone by that point.
And while the Texans brass does not seem too keen on Louisville quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, who had a shaky pro day, Bridgewater would probably be out there if they moved down in the pecking order. And Fresno State’s Derek Carr would also be a candidate, though the movers and shakers at team headquarters undoubtedly know taking the brother of David Carr would result in a public relations disaster.
All the theories and heresy can make your head spin! So let’s keep it simple. If the Texans take Clowney/Mack etc. up top and do not draft one of the quarterbacks listed above, who are universally regarded by most experts as the top four in this year’s class, they are going to pick someone else later on. Houston head coach Bill O’Brien had even talked about snagging two signal callers before the draft was all said and done.
And sometimes it’s better to get a player later. In recent years, Philadelphia’s Nick Foles, Cincinnati’s Andy Dalton, and San Francisco’s Colin Kaepernick were selected outside the first round and they took their teams to the playoffs this year. And of course, there is Russell Wilson, starter for the Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks.
Who are the players beneath the surface worth watching? Let’s find out…
Jimmy Garoppolo, Eastern Illinois – Garoppolo is most commonly listed as the best quarterback on the board after Bridgewater, Manziel, Carr, and Bortles. Should he land with Houston, both NFL teams in the Lone Star State would have starters from Eastern Illinois, as Tony Romo is also a former Panther. That’s amazing in itself, but the fact that Garoppolo threw for 5,050 yards and 53 touchdowns is what really should grab the attention of Texans fans, especially considering he stands a passable 6’2” and has an above-average arm. He also held up well during a series of evaluations including the East-West Shrine Game, Senior Bowl, and the Combine in Indianapolis.
Given Garoppolo is coming from a school where top-notch competition is tougher to find and did not play in a pro-style offense, he’s going to need a lot of seasoning. Of course, given O’Brien’s reputation as a quarterback guru and veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick now on the roster to offer additional advice, it should not be an issue. Some mock drafts that go beyond the first round have Garoppolo going to division rival Jacksonville in round two not long after Houston makes their second selection. If O’Brien, Rick Smith, and company want to take a flyer on this raw but intriguing prospect, they better make a move sooner rather than later.
Zach Mettenberger, LSU – In an enlightening read also available at this site, the mock draft at the State of The Texans website tabs Mettenberger as the team’s third round pick. Another website, draftinsider.net, has the Minnesota Vikings wanting the Zach Attack in the second round. We don’t know how it will be play out, but we do know the 6’5” Mettenberger is a pure pocket passer with more than enough arm strength to make things happen. He threw for 3,082 yards and 22 touchdowns in 2013. Mobility is not his strong suit and he tore his ACL in December in a win over Arkansas. He also benefited from his supporting cast more than most, as his top two receivers were NFL prospects Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry.
Regardless, when you add up all the pluses and minuses, Mettenberger is an appealing prospect who had the potential to be a first-round pick before getting hurt. With a completion percentage of 64.9 percent as a senior, he has the accuracy O’Brien likes and certainly the physique.
Aaron Murray, Georgia – Like Mettenberger, the SEC’s all-time leader in passing yards and touchdown passes is also in the midst of recovering from a torn ACL suffered in late November during a victory over Kentucky. However, he has progressed enough that he will throw at Georgia’s pro day later this month.
Murray is regarded as a player with good leadership skills and an excellent work ethic who performed well in a pro-style offense. He does not possess perfect pro quarterback demographics. His accuracy rate was similar to Mettenberger’s, which is impressive considering he did not have as much talent at receiver, but Murray also did not throw downfield as much. It’s also impressive that NFL Network draft guru Mike Mayock stated Murray is the most accurate quarterback in this year’s class.
It would seem as though Murray would be able to handle anything O’Brien could throw at him after succeeding in the rugged SEC, but would he be able to take things to the next level without ideal physical traits?
A.J. McCarron, Alabama – Mr. Katherine Webb, like many Alabama quarterbacks before him, comes into the draft with a reputation as a winner. Also like many Alabama quarterbacks before him, McCarron is regarded as an overachiever who doesn’t possess the physical characteristics teams are craving.
While McCarron has more to offer than other signal callers of recent Tuscaloosa vintage such as John Parker Wilson and Greg McElroy, questions about arm strength and lack of athleticism compared to other prospects make McCarron one of the more polarizing members of the 2014 class. If O’Brien thinks McCarron has the touch, accuracy, and leadership skills to overcome everything else, then Webb, I mean McCarron, may get an opportunity to prove the naysayers who feel Crimson Tide players max out during college wrong.
Tom Savage, Pittsburgh – Unlike Murray and McCarron, arm strength is not an issue for Savage. He packs plenty of pop in his right arm. What he does not pack in his suitcase is experience. A starter as a freshman at Rutgers, Savage lost his spot atop the depth chart as a sophomore and transferred to Arizona. The transfer did not work out and Savage ended up in the Steel City, throwing for 2,958 yards and 21 touchdowns in his lone season as the starter for the Panthers.
That limited body of work is not scaring off NFL evaluators who love Savage’s arm strength and the fact he stands 6’4”. In fact, knowledgeable Houston media insider Lance Zierlein recently tweeted Savage would be chosen in the second round. He’s definitely a developmental prospect who has the potential to pay big dividends if everything breaks right.
Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech – Thomas is the ultimate tease of the 2014 class. Standing 6’6” and weighing 250 pounds and possessing a respectable arm, Thomas also had the fastest 40 time at the combine. Yet during his time with the Hokies, Thomas never put it together. Consistency was a common problem and while statistics are overrated at times, the fact that Thomas threw for less than 3,000 yards in 2013 and rushed for just 343 with his physical characteristics is cause for concern.
He was beyond awful when Virginia Tech faced Alabama to start the season, completing 5-out-of-26 passes for 59 yards. Nevertheless, someone out there will look at Logan and say “I can mold him into something special.” With O’Brien and Fitzpatrick as mentors, maybe Houston will take the plunge.
Tajh Boyd, Clemson – The versatile Boyd is a dual-threat prospect. While his rushing averages were low, he ran for 10 touchdowns the past two seasons and threw for over 3,000 yards and 30 touchdowns for three straight years. Most importantly, in his final two seasons as a starter, he led Clemson to consecutive 11-win seasons. He also led the Tigers to the ACC title in 2011. Those winning attributes are welcomed in NFL locker rooms.
Boyd is outside of the top group for various reasons, including height and the fact the Clemson system relies on an overabundance of short passes. Evaluators have not seen much deep passing from Boyd, and of course he also had Sammy Watkins, the top receiver in this year’s class, in his corner. Tajh remains a potential sleeper who has become a bit overlooked.
David Fales, San Jose State – A rhythm passer who threw for 4,189 yards and 33 touchdowns in his final season in Silicon Valley, Fales is comparable to McCarron and Murray in terms of being poised but lacking the ideal build. The phrase “fits best in a West Coast Offense” usually seems to come up regarding someone, and this year’s model appears to be Fales. The Texans will not be utilizing that scheme under O’Brien. Regardless, Fales brings a decent overall skill set to the table, meaning he cannot be ruled out as the draft progresses.
Brett Smith, Wyoming – In that same State of the Texans mock draft where Mettenberger was taken, Smith is Houston’s choice in the sixth round. Smith is an underclassman who decided to leave Laramie in the wake of a coaching change. Like Boyd, he’s a dual-threat, rushing for 814 yards and averaging 4.6 yards per carry while throwing for 3,375 yards and 29 touchdowns. More athletic than many mid-to-late round prospects, he has the capacity to be a diamond in the rough and a sensible selection for the Texans if he’s out there at that stage of the draft.
Connor Shaw, South Carolina – Even if you are a big fan of “the Old Ball Coach” Steve Spurrier, you have to admit the track record of Spurrier-coached quarterbacks in the NFL is weak. Although Shaw has considerably more mobility than the likes of Shane Matthews and Danny Wuerffel, the same limitations they had also apply to Shaw. It’s not out of the question the Texans see something they like and look at Shaw as a developmental prospect, but the upside is limited.
Stephen Morris, Miami – Unfortunately for Morris, he backtracked as a senior, as he threw more interceptions than he did as a junior. He also struggled at the Senior Bowl. Since he has plenty of toughness and a live arm capable of connecting on deep balls, teams will give Morris more than a passing glance. He would not be counted on to play right away, giving O’Brien a chance to work out the kinks if the front office believes Morris has something to offer.
-Andy Rioux
Contributor
