Now that the dust has settled after the loss of Parsons & signing of Ariza, it’s time to explore whether there is a realistic drop off between the 2 players. If we’re just looking at pure numbers from last season, you may be surprised.
Parsons averaged: 2 more minutes per game, 2 more points, .7 more rebounds, 1.4 more assists & .4 less steals. According to ESPN, Parsons overall PER (Player Efficiency Rating) was 45th in the NBA while Ariza was 68th. The PER puts together all the stats & gives you an idea of what a player’s overall value would be.
So far, Parsons numbers are definitely better but not by a wide margin. Let’s look at shooting percentages. Parsons FG% was 47.2% & his 3 pt % was 37%. Ariza was 45.6 & 40.7. Keep in mind, that Ariza’s shooting numbers have been trending up the last 3 or 4 years. Despite the addition of Dwight Howard, Parsons FG & 3 pt % dropped last year from ’12-’13. Now you are putting Ariza in a lineup with 2 legit stars who draw double teams & plenty of attention so he will get more wide open opportunities.
Defensively, Ariza is in another category. Parsons never showed the lateral footwork required of an elite defender. Ariza can be a lockdown defender and, as Daryl Morey said, that is the type of player you need opposite James Harden. With Ariza & Beverley, you have 2 of 3 spots on the perimeter with lockdown guys & you have 3 great defenders in the starting lineup.
What will you miss without Parsons?
Without question, the Rockets lose a playmaker. We saw what happened when Ariza had to create in his last stint in Houston. It wasn’t pretty.
When Parsons couldn’t play or when he was out of the lineup, the Rockets struggled last year. As everyone witnessed, he brought more ball movement & chemistry on the floor, but he wasn’t as important as you might think. Howard, Harden & even Beverley & Asik had a higher plus-minus rating than Parsons.
The biggest loss with Chandler is the intangibles. He brought guys together. His teammates loved him. With concern over Howard & Harden’s egos, Parsons came across as the perfect go-between. There was never a question of team-cohesion with Parsons in the locker room.
Was Parsons on his way to star status?
Parsons argues that he was ready to become a legit superstar. I didn’t see it. A star draws double teams, has defenses all rotating towards them, has a variety of go-to weapons and, if they can’t do all of that, makes up for it with their defense. Parsons still isn’t close to a borderline All-Star. He’s a top-notch role player, one of the best in the league… and there’s no shame in that. But he is definitely not a superstar, nor is he knocking at the door yet.
Do I believe Daryl Morey made a massive mistake?
Unless there were other unknown things at play, it was a mistake to put your eggs into the dream of a Bosh or Carmelo, combined with the hope that nobody would drastically overpay for Parsons. The decision to allow him to become restricted feels like a huge gamble. A more likely scenario involves trading Parsons for the 3rd star. However, I want a GM who aims to win the whole thing, instead of hoping to catch every break. When he says a team typically needs 3 stars to win a championship, he’s right. We can all cite the Clutch City Rockets but they were obviously the exception to the rule.
The big issue now is not the loss of Parsons. Ariza is not a major drop off. The bigger problem is: Where do you find a big man who can guard Aldridge, Blake Griffin & Tim Duncan? The Rockets also desperately need another player who can create off the dribble. Harden is the only true creator right now.
If the Rockets go into next season without major additions to their bench, they are definitely an inferior team from the one who left the floor last year. Morey hit on 17 at the blackjack table after he threw most of his chips in. He must now be creative with the chips left.
-Robert Land
Here’s our podcast with Clutchfans Ben DuBose discussing what happened to the Rockets hopeful offseason.
